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Kelly bet stake calculator

Kelly bet stake calculator

This calculator will work out how much of your bankroll you should to stake using the Kelly Criterion (aka: Kelly Formula, Kelly Bet, Kelly Strategy) . It uses the probablitiy of winning against the available odds to estimate the amount of your bankroll you should bet for optimum return.

Kelly was a scientist who worked at Bell Labs in the 1950's and invented a formula for maximising returns in investment strategy. Kelly is now a widely accepted principle in investment strategy and also used by many punters.

This investment strategy can be thought of as a staking plan and is particularly useful in scenarios where there is only a win or lose outcome. Formpick provides historical probabilities of similar profiled horses in as part of its ratings. This approach leads the Kelly Formula to be well suited to staking plans using Formpick.

A word of caution however is that many gamblers believe the Kelly Formula to be too aggressive and prefer to operate a 1/2 or even a 1/4 Kelly strategy. Negative numbers mean that there is not enough value in the bet given the risks and therefore recommend no bet. Personal experience leads us to sugest a minimum and a maximum value around the Kelly formula has delivered best profits.

Bankroll £
Value index
If index is below 100 - do not back
Forecast Odds
Stake % of bank
Win probability %
Stake £
   

The Kelly formula is:

Kelly % = W – [(1 – W) / R]

Where:
W = Winning probability
R = Odds Available