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How to use Formpick

Before you start using Formpick it is very important you read this page - it will only take you a few minutes - will get you up to speed quickly and definitely give you better results.

First of all if you are new to Formpick before backing a selection we recommend that you do it in theory first: - i.e. make some selections and review their actual performance in a race. They'll be plenty more races for you to win on in the future but this will provide you with confidence that you are reading the system correctly and avoid any expensive 'newbie' mistakes.

Getting started

It is important that you understand that Formpick still requires some brain power on your part. We believe we provide all the key indicators to help you do this but because of the variable nature of racing we still recommend reviewing each option in context of all the information shown rather than just blindly following our top rated pick.

Formpick uses a horse’s historical race form to try to indicate winners for each race analysed. Historical data is passed through our proprietary software and formulae to provide a ranked score for each horse.

To begin with we rate each horse with a score which we then adjust for changes in weight for this specific race (a weight adjusted score).

We then rank each horse by this weight adjusted score with the higher score being better.

In theory our top weight adjusted score would be our top pick and often is - however we like to look at this score in the context of other information like track speed, official rating etc. to increase our degree of confidence.

An example of using this wider context would be a race with two similarly rated horses, with the second from top rated horse having a higher 'track speed' than the former. As you will find - particularly with shorter races 'track speed' is an important race winning indicator and so one might prefer this option over the higher scored option as all things considered its overall view looks better.

Another example is the 'days since' last race information - most horses (not all!) need a run to get them into racing condition. If a horse hasn't run for a long time this might lead you to look at the next alternative.

Before we get too deep into the workings lets first look at what the numbers mean.

What do the numbers mean?

  1. Course
  2. Race time
  3. Class of race
  4. Race distance
  5. Going
  6. Number of runners
  7. Horse number
  8. Horse name
  9. Full history class (has the horse ever got 3rd or better in this class of race)
  10. Full history dist (has the horse ever got 3rd or better at this distance of race)
  11. Full history going (has the horse ever got 3rd or better on this going)
  12. Full history course (has the horse ever got 3rd or better at this course)
  13. Full history weight (has the horse ever got 3rd or better with this weight or heavier)
  14. Initial Formpick score - this is the value we have attributed to this horse as a result of passing it through our analysis. We don't publish our formulas of how this is calculated.
  15. Weight adjusted score - this is similar to the above score but this time incorporates the difference in the weight the horse carried in its last race and this race.
  16. Our speed rating for the horse
  17. Official BHB rating
  18. Days since the horse has last run
  19. Official previous form
  20. Actual form of last three analysed races
  21. Last three races BHB rating
  22. Record of horses races relating to course distance and going
  23. Warning
  24. Pick
  25. Superscript

Where to start.

One of the problems with a system that outputs every race running in a day is that by definition it will try to pick the winning horse in every race. This clearly needs to be filtered down to avoid having to place a silly number of bets and increase our chances of winning.

To be clear Formpick  analyses every race and suggests a favorite horse in each race - however some races are more likely to provide a winner than others. This could be because the horses in the race have limited form, the race is unlikely to run to form or there are too many horses with a similar rating making it too close to call.

There are many reasons why we are more confident of some races than others. To try to shortlist these races we highlight horses that warrant further investigation displayed in the  'pick' column and is calculated as follows:

  • 1 point for each occurrence of either top score / top weight adjusted score / top track speed / top rating
  • 1 extra point is awarded for a horse that is top scored and also top weight adjusted scored and the weight adjusted score is higher than the score - meaning the horse has come down in weight.

This data is then listed in descending order under  'top picks'.

Given the simplistic nature of how this list is derived - you should only use it as a guide and not a definative list of preferred horses.

As you get more familiar with the analysis you will probably be happy checking each race yourself - but this provides a good starting point for those either new to Formpick or short of time.

Still stuck?

Ask a question here and we'll get back to you